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Article

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Title

Hellenic airspace violations: An updating note

Authors

[ 1 ] Department of Science and Mathematics, The American College of Greece, 6, Gravias street GR-153 42, Aghia Paraskevi, Athens, Greece | [ 2 ] Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, The American College of Greece, 6, Gravias street GR-153 42, Aghia Paraskevi, Athens, Greece

Year of publication

2025

Published in

Security and Defence Quarterly

Journal year: 2025 | Journal number: Online first

Article type

scientific article

Publication language

english

Keywords
EN
  • Greece
  • Turkey
  • Emigration
PL
  • Emigracja
  • Grecja
  • Turcja
Abstract

EN This is a note to update an earlier published paper, which focused on forecasting Hellenic flight information region violations by Turkish aircraft. The update became necessary following certain geopolitical and economic developments in the Mediterranean, mainly the Athens Agreement. The least-squares best fit model for the 2009–2019 data set for Hellenic airspace violations was used, accompanied by additional ordinary least squares estimates and forecasts. We showed that the pattern of pressure on the Hellenic sovereignty described in the above-mentioned paper is now different in terms of the methods exercised; it is also cheaper. However, it is equally, if not more, effective. We interpret this shift by arguing that Turkey is a Political Realism follower, focusing on the importance of power, security, and national interest in shaping its actions, regardless of the ideological or ethical implications of such actions. This explains its preference for exerting pressure in the form of sea border violations and massive forced emigration from Turkey to the European Union via Greece. This note concludes that the pattern of pressure on the Hellenic sovereignty in the Aegean involving Hellenic airspace violations by Turkish aircraft has been modified. Turkey now prefers cheaper but equally effective methods, such as sea border violations and, in most cases, hybrid warfare tactics, like massive forced emigration.

Date of online publication

22.04.2025

DOI

10.35467/sdq/199780

URL

https://securityanddefence.pl/Hellenic-airspace-violations-An-updating-note,199780,0,2.html

Comments

Corresponding author George Andrew Zombanakis Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, The American College of Greece, 6, Gravias street GR-153 42, Aghia Paraskevi, Athens, Greece. These authors had equal contribution to this work

License type

CC BY (attribution alone)

Open Access Mode

open journal

Open Access Text Version

final published version

Release date

22.04.2025

Full text of article

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Access level to full text

public

Ministry points / journal

70