Theoretical foundation of a proposed methodology and analysis framework for political instability risk assessment

Zisis Kyrgos; Ippokratis Daskalakis

doi:10.35467/sdq/207135

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Artykuł

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Tytuł

Theoretical foundation of a proposed methodology and analysis framework for political instability risk assessment

Autorzy

Zisis Kyrgos ^{[ 1 ]}
Ippokratis Daskalakis ^{[ 2 ]}

^{[ 1 ]} HELISS, Hellenic Institute of Strategic Studies, Greece | ^{[ 2 ]} Research Director, Hellenic Institute of Strategic Studies, Greece

Rok publikacji

2025

Opublikowano w

Security and Defence Quarterly

Rocznik: 2025 | Tom: vol. 51 | Numer: no. 3

Typ artykułu

artykuł naukowy

Język publikacji

angielski

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Internal security
National security
Security

PL

Bezpieczeństwo
Bezpieczeństwo narodowe
Bezpieczeństwo wewnętrzne

Streszczenie

EN The last decade has seen the most cases of political instability and internal security incidents among all the decades of the 20th and 21st centuries so far. This fact alone indicates a necessity to address the factors contributing to the phenomenon in a way prospectively usable in decision and policy-making procedures. An analysis methodology taking into consideration the factors contributing to such cases would be a valuable tool to achieve the above necessity. Consequently, the objective of this research is to specify these factors. The methodology used to determine these factors involves a case study of historical cases of internal state unrest and instability. Fifteen cases were selected for analysis at random, based on the data obtained from the Uppsala Conflict Data Programme. The cases selected were analysed based on the parties involved in the conflict, the conflict’s historical and political contexts, factors contributing to its occurrence according to relevant bibliography, actions taken by the rival groups, potential external involvement in the conflict, and other points of interest relevant to the study. The factors determined include the social entity’s relative size, denial of rights, information flow, geography, leadership, means of projecting power, environmental conditions, repression/freedom of action, and triggering event. The above factors were cross-referenced with different theories relevant to the subject under examination.

Strony (od-do)

130 - 149

DOI

10.35467/sdq/207135

URL

https://securityanddefence.pl/Theoretical-foundation-of-a-proposed-methodology-and-analysis-framework-for-political,207135,0,2.html

Uwagi

Corresponding author Zisis Kyrgos HELISS, Hellenic Institute of Strategic Studies, 28th October 88, 10434, Athens, Greece

Typ licencji

CC BY (uznanie autorstwa)

Tryb otwartego dostępu

otwarte czasopismo