Processing may take a few seconds...


Download file


Analysis of strategic stakeholders in the Western Balkans


[ 1 ] National and International Security, New Bulgarian University, Montevideo 21, 1632, Sofia, Bulgaria

Year of publication


Published in

Security and Defence Quarterly

Journal year: 2022 | Journal volume: vol. 40 | Journal number: no. 4

Article type

scientific article

Publication language


  • Balkans
  • International security
  • Bałkany (region)
  • Bezpieczeństwo międzynarodowe

EN The purpose of this paper is to generate a model of the interplay between the main actors in the Western Balkans region in order to try to highlight major switch-factors and pathways for future evolution of the system. The study was carried out using MACTOR software developed by Laboratoire d’Investigation en Prospective, Stratégie et Organisation and École Pour l’Informatique et les Techniques Avancées. This computer-assisted method creates a hierarchy of objectives based on the mobilisation rates and gives some insight into what is at stake and the interested parties. The paper calculates the competitiveness index of each actor included in the model and the weighted valued position matrix showing both valence and mobilisation rate of actor-objective pairs. Valued convergence and divergence matrices (with graphic representation) outline the structure of the region. The results obtained can be used to develop possible scenarios. The structure of the Western Balkans region is subordinated to a single major divergence which is translated to the internal actors. Insulator states are losing relative weight with a narrowing field of manoeuvres. Bosnia and Herzegovina has become a focal point of polarity with a distinct vulnerability to the future line of behaviour of the Croatian element in the country.

Date of online publication


Pages (from - to)

27 - 46




License type

CC BY (attribution alone)

Open Access Mode

open journal

Open Access Text Version

final published version

Release date

2022 (Date presumed)

Full text of article

Download file

Access level to full text


Ministry points / journal