2022

Security and Defence Quarterly

Journal year: 2022 | Journal volume: vol. 40 | Journal number: no. 4

scientific article

english

EN The purpose of this paper is to generate a model of the interplay between the main actors in the Western Balkans region in order to try to highlight major switch-factors and pathways for future evolution of the system. The study was carried out using MACTOR software developed by Laboratoire d’Investigation en Prospective, Stratégie et Organisation and École Pour l’Informatique et les Techniques Avancées. This computer-assisted method creates a hierarchy of objectives based on the mobilisation rates and gives some insight into what is at stake and the interested parties. The paper calculates the competitiveness index of each actor included in the model and the weighted valued position matrix showing both valence and mobilisation rate of actor-objective pairs. Valued convergence and divergence matrices (with graphic representation) outline the structure of the region. The results obtained can be used to develop possible scenarios. The structure of the Western Balkans region is subordinated to a single major divergence which is translated to the internal actors. Insulator states are losing relative weight with a narrowing field of manoeuvres. Bosnia and Herzegovina has become a focal point of polarity with a distinct vulnerability to the future line of behaviour of the Croatian element in the country.

30.10.2022

27 - 46

10.35467/sdq/154884

https://securityanddefence.pl/Analysis-of-strategic-stakeholders-in-the-Western-Balkans,154884,0,2.html

CC BY (attribution alone)

open journal

final published version

2022 (Date presumed)

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