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Article


Title

NATO’s defence policy dilemma in the Baltic States

Authors

[ 1 ] Leiden University

Year of publication

2017

Published in

Security and Defence Quarterly

Journal year: 2017 | Journal volume: vol. 14 | Journal number: nr 1

Article type

scientific article

Publication language

english

Keywords
EN
  • NATO
  • Russia
  • Baltic
  • Defence policy
  • Deterrence
  • Warsaw Summit
Abstract

EN The purpose of this paper is to discuss the dilemma NATO has faced since February 2014 in its defence policy regarding the Baltic States. If NATO pursues a policy of deterrence, it might trigger war because Russia, the would-be deteree, may perceive actions taken by NATO as not intended to strengthen deterrence but rather to intimidate or coerce it. If it pursues an alternate policy of leaving the Baltic States visibly undefended, it might trigger war because Russia may see this as a sign of weakness and a gap to be exploited. This article investigates the logic of the dilemma, before considering whether NATO’s choice, made at the Warsaw Summit of July 2016, is working as intended. Ultimately, we cannot predict the answer and, therefore, we should consider all possible outcomes, including those which lead to a defensive war in the Baltic States.

Date of online publication

21.03.2017

Pages (from - to)

51 - 68

DOI

10.5604/01.3001.0010.8471

URL

https://securityanddefence.pl/NATO-s-defence-policy-dilemma-in-the-Baltic-States,103196,0,2.html

Open Access Mode

open journal

Open Access Text Version

final published version

Release date

21.03.2017

Points of MNiSW / journal

7.0

Points of MNiSW / journal in years 2017-2021

7.0