Title
NATO’s defence policy dilemma in the Baltic States
Authors
[ 1 ] Leiden University
Year of publication
2017
Published in
Article type
scientific article
Publication language
english
Keywords
EN
- NATO
- Russia
- Baltic
- Defence policy
- Deterrence
- Warsaw Summit
Abstract
EN The purpose of this paper is to discuss the dilemma NATO has faced since February 2014 in its defence policy regarding the Baltic States. If NATO pursues a policy of deterrence, it might trigger war because Russia, the would-be deteree, may perceive actions taken by NATO as not intended to strengthen deterrence but rather to intimidate or coerce it. If it pursues an alternate policy of leaving the Baltic States visibly undefended, it might trigger war because Russia may see this as a sign of weakness and a gap to be exploited. This article investigates the logic of the dilemma, before considering whether NATO’s choice, made at the Warsaw Summit of July 2016, is working as intended. Ultimately, we cannot predict the answer and, therefore, we should consider all possible outcomes, including those which lead to a defensive war in the Baltic States.
Date of online publication
21.03.2017
Pages (from - to)
51 - 68
Open Access Mode
open journal
Open Access Text Version
final published version
Release date
21.03.2017
Ministry points / journal
7
Ministry points / journal in years 2017-2021
7
This website works thanks to the software SINUS
created by Poznan Supercomputing and Networking Center
Log in to submit to SIS: