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The importance of forecasting in strategic planning


[ 1 ] Instytut Studiów Strategicznych, Wydział Bezpieczeństwa Narodowego, Akademia Sztuki Wojennej | [ P ] employee

Scientific discipline (Law 2.0)

[5.3] Security studies

Year of publication


Published in

Defense Resources Management in the 21st Century

Journal year: 2019 | Journal volume: vol. 14 | Journal number: no. 14

Article type

scientific article / paper

Publication language


  • Metoda Delphi
  • Metoda scenariuszowa
  • Państwo
  • Planowanie strategiczne
  • Planowanie gospodarcze
  • Prognozowanie

EN Forecasting techniques can be helpful in planning the future for various business entities, administrations and for creating a state vision. Among the many available techniques, only a few are needed for strategic planning of the state. Other forecasting methods may be useful for other more specialized entity functions. There are no forecasting techniques that could predict the future in any way. They are useful in narrowing the scope of future entity options to make decisions about the future. In the context of strategic planning, the following forecasting models are used: time series forecasts, scenario writing and Delphi technique. Scenario planning, scenario thinking, or scenario analysis is an approach used in strategic planning, which is used as a tool to develop more robust and flexible long-term plans. Used in forecasting, it is sometimes referred to as scenario writing and is used to generate different imagined results, based on different sets of initial conditions and anticipated trends in key strategic factors. The decision maker then makes the decision on the most likely outcome from the many scenarios presented.

Date of online publication


Pages (from - to)

259 - 265


Presented on

14th edition of the International Scientific Conference Defense Resources Management in the 21st Century, 7-8.11.2019, Brasov, Romania

License type

CC BY-NC (attribution - noncommercial)

Open Access Mode

open repository

Open Access Text Version

final published version

Ministry points / journal


Ministry points / journal in years 2017-2021


Publication indexed in