2025

Security and Defence Quarterly

Journal year: 2025 | Journal number: Online first

scientific article

english

EN In the rapidly evolving landscape of international relations, cyberspace has emerged as a new battlefield for interstate competition and conflict. The increasing digitalisation of our world necessitates a thorough understanding of cybersecurity and the strategic dynamics of cyber warfare. The current level of understanding of these issues is limited. This study aims to bridge this gap by employing game theory to analyse significant cyber crises that occurred during the 2000s. By modelling the preferences and strategies of states that have extended their global power struggles into the cyber domain, we seek to develop a framework for predicting systematic crises and conflicts in this arena. Our research examines eight case studies drawn from North America, South America, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. For each case, we define the actors, their strategies, preferences, and potential outcomes, culminating in the identification of Nash equilibria. Through comparative analysis, we highlight the similarities and differences in cyber conflict dynamics across these diverse regions. This study contributes to the literature on cyber conflicts in international relations through its innovative application of game theory modelling and comparative case analysis. We developed a novel analytical framework for explaining state behaviour in cyberspace. Our findings suggest that game theory and strategic analysis can serve as powerful tools for predicting state preferences in the cyber domain. The results indicate that aggressor states often adopt denial strategies, while victim states tend to respond with harsh retaliation. Furthermore, we observed that cyber operations during election periods are attractive to both aggressor and victim countries, but this tendency contributes to global instability. In conclusion, this research argues in support of the utility of game theory and strategic analysis in modelling and forecasting state preferences and behaviours in cyberspace. Our study not only contributes to the existing literature but also proposes methodological approaches for future research. The insights gained from this analysis are valuable for policymakers in formulating effective cybersecurity strategies and for scholars seeking to deepen their understanding of the complex interplay between technology, strategy, and international relations in the digital age.

31.05.2025

1 - 25

10.35467/sdq/203979

https://securityanddefence.pl/Cyber-Conflict-Game-Theory-Strategic-Analysis-of-Global-Cyber-Crises-in-the-2000s,203979,0,2.html

CC BY (attribution alone)

open journal

final published version

31.05.2025

at the time of publication

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