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Hellenic air - space violations by Turkish aircraft: A statistical assessment and a forecast


[ 1 ] Department of Science and Mathematics, The American College of Greece, 6, Gravias street GR-153 42, Aghia Paraskevi, Athens, Greece | [ 2 ] Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, The American College of Greece, 6, Gravias street GR-153 42, Aghia Paraskevi, Athens, Greece

Year of publication


Published in

Security and Defence Quarterly

Journal year: 2020 | Journal volume: vol. 32 | Journal number: no. 5

Article type

scientific article

Publication language


  • Turkey
  • Greece
  • Air
  • Space
  • Violations

EN This paper aims to assess the extent to which repeated attacks against sovereign Hellenic air space by Turkey along with the inevitably ensuing engagements between aircraft of the two sides follow a certain predetermined pattern of behaviour that can be detected based on a given statistical model, and if so, to what extent this pattern is predictable in terms of its intensity and the frequency of incidents. To this end, we use the Weibull statistical distribution as an appropriate tool for interpreting and quantifying the pattern of aggressive Turkish behaviour and calculating probabilities of occurrences. Based on this choice, we then proceed with a forecast of this behaviour in the near future. We provide specific mathematical formulae that can be readily used to calculate probabilities and forecast air space violations and engagements. Our models, based on historical data, assume that both Hellenic air space violations and engagement incidents will keep increasing but will inevitably reach a monthly maximum, constrained by the availability of property and human resources on the Turkish side. The conclusions drawn point to the fact that Turkey will at some point in the near future reach its capacity limits in terms of property and human resources used in such offensive exercises, and that there is very little that can be done to enhance the margins of such activities given the room provided by the Turkish economy, which seem to be prohibitive.

Date of online publication


Pages (from - to)

7 - 18



License type

CC BY-NC-ND (attribution - noncommercial - no derivatives)

Open Access Mode

open journal

Open Access Text Version

final published version

Release date


Date of Open Access to the publication

at the time of publication

Points of MNiSW / journal


Points of MNiSW / journal in years 2017-2021